Editor’s note: The Bulletin has partnered with the University of Oregon’s College of Arts and Sciences and Department of Economics to produce the Central Oregon Business Index. The index provides a regular snapshot of the region’s economy using economic models consistent with national standards. The index, exclusive to The Bulletin, appears quarterly in the Sunday Business section.

In the third quarter of 2014, the Central Oregon Business Index showed continued economic growth so steady that it’s almost boring, said University of Oregon economist Tim Duy, who compiles the data for the index.

“It’s not particularly dramatic,” he said Wednesday. “Drama’s bad. We want consistent, solid, steady improvement, and that’s what we’re seeing.”

The third quarter index reached 125.2, compared to 124.3, a revised figure, in the preceding quarter. The index, which is pegged to a 1998 benchmark of 100, is up 4.3 percent over third-quarter 2013. Duy said he expects to see trends in job growth, home sales, tourism and other measures continue to improve in the coming year.

“The recovery in Central Oregon remains in place,” he wrote in a quarterly analysis. “Expect continued improvement on the back of ongoing growth in the national and state economies.”

Home sales rose to about 440 per month, the highest since the second quarter of 2006, and above the average 259 per month before the 1997-2001 real estate bubble. The continuing arrival of new residents should fuel demand for new housing, particularly single-family homes, Duy said. Talk of another real estate bubble is, so far, misplaced, he added.

“A good chunk of the rebound we’ve seen is a bounce off the bottom. Housing prices fell to a level far too low relative to long-term trends in the region,” Duy said. “What I think is going on right now is we’re still not getting a sufficient supply response” to the demand for new housing.

Elsewhere, tourism showed strong growth as measured by transient room taxes collected in Bend. Duy’s data showed a steady increase, in dollars adjusted for inflation, from $1.7 million in third-quarter 2013 to $2.2 million this year. Only a decline in the number of airline passengers through Redmond Airport darkened the tourism picture, a phenomenon that Duy attributed to the Sept. 1 end of United Express direct service between Portland and Redmond.

The labor market continued to gain strength during the third quarter, with employment up nearly 5 percent over the year, coming within 3,100 jobs of peak employment before the 2007-09 recession, Duy wrote. Employers other than farms added 400 jobs over the quarter.

The loss Tuesday of more than 200 jobs at Woodgrain Millwork, in Prineville, lies outside the trend in Central Oregon, Duy said Wednesday. The company attributed its decision to close a manufacturing line to equipment damaged when a roof collapsed Nov. 14 under the weight of snow.

“Even with a strong economy, there’s still going to be churn,” Duy said. “Just because the economy is improving doesn’t mean everybody’s business is improving equally.”

Overall, he said, the economy gives reason to be optimistic. The U.S. economy is showing strength, and that momentum will be difficult to change.

“Economic activity is gaining strength more broadly,” he said. “Lower unemployment rates nationally and a steady stream of job growth will translate to higher wage growth in the next year.”

— Reporter: 541-617-7815, jditzler@bendbulletin.com