Bend’s population isn’t expected to clear 100,000 for another decade, but if you count couch surfers, second-home owners and hotel guests, it’s already done just that.

During the summers of 2012 and 2013, Bend averaged 18,000 visitors a day, according to research commissioned by Visit Bend. Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the city’s full-time population to be 81,236 in 2013. Combined with projected residential population growth and expectations of a strong tourism season, it’s likely Bend’s feet-on-the-ground population will clear 100,000 on quite a few days this summer, as it likely did last summer, too.

While lines may seem especially long and bar stools dreadfully scarce during the river-floating season, the city’s full-time plus visitor population rarely falls below 93,000, as the number of average daily visitors reaches a low of just 12,000 in the winter.

“Bend’s tourism industry has had four consecutive record summers, so there is clearly strong momentum in the industry,” said Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of Visit Bend. “It’s impossible to know when an extended run like this will end, but with the extraordinary and historic summer lineup at the Les Schwab Amphitheater, I’m predicting another record summer.”

Bend City Manager Eric King said the city’s bloated summer population is felt most directly by the police and fire departments, which see an increase in calls for service. Thanks to the city’s transient room tax, which charges guests staying in hotels, bed and breakfasts and other accommodations, some of the visitors who come through Bend help to pay for these services.

About 85 percent of the city’s general fund is spent on emergency services. Annually, property taxes, paid directly by owners and indirectly by renters, generally contributes around $25 million to the fund, while the room tax generates about $4 million.

“The contribution from the transient room tax is actually close to being proportional,” King said, referencing the fact that during the summer, about one-fifth of the city’s population is made up of visitors.

Another area visitors impact, and where the toll of endless SUV tires is visibly felt, is the roads, which city officials say are in poor condition. The City Council is considering proposing a gas tax of 5 cents per gallon, something that both visitors and full-time residents would pay. Based on revenue generated by other Oregon cities, a gas tax could contribute about $2.5 million a year. In total, the value of deferred road maintenance is estimated by the city to be $80 million.

“There’s a significant impact on our roads from the numbers of people coming through,” King said. “A gas tax would be one way for those visiting to pay their fair share.”

Currently, a majority of visitors don’t pay the transient room tax. According to Visit Bend, of all the days spent by tourists in Bend, only 28 percent involve a hotel stay. Seven percent come from people who don’t stay the night, while 65 percent fall into an “other” category, which LaPlaca said could encompass anything from second-home owners to those sleeping on a friend’s floor. While it’s hard to estimate, LaPlaca said there’s room for about 25,000 to stay in Bend on any given night.

Despite the size of the visiting population, the city’s planning staff doesn’t directly consider tourists during discussions about how to shape the city. However, city of Bend Planning Manager Brian Rankin said related issues come up all the time.

“One of the best examples is the vacation rental debate,” Rankin said, referencing recent changes to the city’s land use code that restrict the placement of rentals. “Ten years ago, you couldn’t do this, but with better technology, you can Google ‘Bend’ and find a place on VRBO. We’re, as a city, evolving to meet these changes.”

Rankin said when planners end up addressing the city’s waxing tourism market “the issues come under the lens of livability.” At the same time, he pointed out that “the reason Bend has such a vibrant downtown” is because the economy is sized to fit the constant presence of tourists.

“The question becomes, ‘How do we strike the right balance?’ And what the City Council is doing is focusing on both livability and economic development,” Rankin said. “It’s interesting to see, because on one hand, you’re looking to manage and (mitigate) the impact from visitors, and with economic development, the goal is to create more middle-class jobs that may not be created in a tourism-only economy. The idea is to work on both at the same time.”

— Reporter: 541-633-2160, tleeds@bendbulletin.com

The last time Bend expanded its urban growth boundary, Phil Donahue was still a popular talk-show host, AIDS was a new term and Brian Fratzke was a freshman in high school.

The year was 1981, Fratzke said Wednesday during the Bend Chamber Real Estate Forecast Breakfast, which drew about 400 attendees to the Riverhouse Convention Center. Now a commercial real estate broker and principal at Fratzke Commercial Real Estate Advisors, Fratzke and four other panelists explained why the long process to bring more territory into the city of Bend is driving up the cost of residential and commercial real estate.

“Here’s why you should care,” he said. “How many of you have a business where you pay rent, you pay a lease, you own a building?” Lease rates for industrial space, for example, have nearly doubled in Bend in three years as the available space has shrunk from 1.9 million square feet to 288,000 square feet, a decline in vacancy rates from 38 percent to 5.76 percent, Fratzke said.

“Back in 2012, if you wanted to lease some industrial space you’d pay 35 cents per (square) foot per month. That’s your base rent. It’s almost doubled,” he said. “And we have some buildings that are listed as high as 80 and 90 cents a foot in town right now.”

The city in 2009 proposed bringing another 8,400 acres within its limits, a plan the state Land Conservation and Development Commission returned with a remand order, “like a teacher grading your very, very complex paper,” said panelist Brian Rankin, Bend city planning manager. Bend City Council is on track to address the state critiques in a new plan by June 2016, with possible state adoption by June 2017, he said. City elected officials, City Hall staffers and citizen volunteers have worked together, some on technical advisory committees, to revise the plan.

“This is not a complete do-over,” Rankin said. “We’re keeping elements the state approved and then we’re working on the things they told us to improve.”

With land in short supply and demand for homes in Bend increasing, the cost of housing is also increasing beyond the average worker’s ability to pay, said panelist Bill Duffey, vice president of land development for Hayden Homes. System development charges, the fees imposed on developers by the city and the Bend Park & Recreation District, add another 2 percent to 10 percent to costs, depending on the type of construction, said panelist Ron Ross, a broker with Compass Commercial Real Estate Services.

Duffey calculated that entry-level homebuyers in Bend are earning about $76,000 annually, or about $20,000 more than the median income in Bend, which he pegged at about $56,000.

“That space (between the two incomes) is a market that we’re really having a hard time trying to serve right now,” Duffey said.

Even if the state approves the revised city plan for expansion, three to five years will pass before it affords any relief to builders, employers and homebuyers who must shoulder the cost of a tight real-estate market, the panelists said. Fratzke suggested several moves they all could make in the meantime.

Commercial tenants may want to talk with their landlords about renewing their leases at affordable rates; tenants who can afford to do so might consider purchasing their own property, he said.

Developers should look for opportunities to redevelop existing properties while keeping an eye on lease rates to know when they warrant new construction, Fratzke said.

Citizens should get involved by making their opinions known to the City Council and state Land Conservation and Development Commission and Land Use Board of Appeals, he said.

“Bend’s gonna continue to grow. This is the greatest city in America,” Fratzke said. “People are going to keep moving and demand’s going to outstrip supply. So let’s keep on top of it.”

— Reporter: 541-617-7815,

WASHINGTON — The poshest of luxury homes are acquiring the cachet of a masterwork by Picasso or Matisse.

Rather than settle for garages of antique cars or a museum’s worth of paintings, billionaires are increasingly willing to pay $100 million for homes that can serve as showcases for their fortunes, according to an analysis issued Thursday by Christie’s International Real Estate.

“It tells you that there is a new class of collectible — they’re trophies now,” Dan Conn, CEO of Christie’s real estate brokerage, said of the most lavish homes being acquired.

The luxury housing market has shifted in the past year as the dollar has strengthened. Sales in Manhattan, Los Angeles, San Francisco, London and other global hubs are stabilizing after having rocketed in 2013, when many buyers cashed in on stock market gains. Now, multimillionaires and billionaires are seeking estates overseas and at resort destinations, the report said.

The dollar has appreciated 20 percent against the euro in the past year, making pied-a-terres in Paris and wineries in Bourdeaux more affordable for wealthy Americans. Sales are also surging by averages of more than 20 percent along the beaches of Turks & Caicos and the slopes of Telluride, Colorado.

Five homes sold around the world for more than $100 million in 2014, and a record 18 were listed for sale at that level, according to the Christie’s report. Last year’s purchases include a $146 million French Riviera mansion. Each square foot of the home cost $22,577 — roughly equivalent to a new Honda Accord.

This is the new top tier for billionaires scouring the globe for signature homes, a market that Conn said should continue to prosper because the world minted 200 new billionaires from 2013 to 2014.

“You’ve got this club of billionaires who just like to have unique assets,” Conn said. “But it’s also, truthfully, that they like to entertain their friends and say, ‘This is mine.’”

The luxury market contrasts with the still-struggling U.S. real estate market as a whole. Millions of homeowners still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth — a vestige of the housing crash that triggered the Great Recession in late 2007. Buyers remain sensitive to changes in mortgage rates and price swings that could make ownership costlier. At the same time, access to credit remains tight for some. Sales have been running below a pace associated with healthy markets.

“There’s a deeper cultural shift where people aren’t willing to get a house at any cost,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of the brokerage Redfin.

Existing homes sold at an annual pace of 5.19 million in March, a sharp increase after a brutal winter curtailed buying in the Northeast, the National Association of Realtors said last week.